5+ Players Who Might Break Out in the Playoffs
Some have time, for others the clock is ticking...
Several (mostly young) players have caught my eye throughout the season. They always seem to be in the right place and at the right time making good, winning plays. I will talk about mostly bench or “low-level” starters - meaning they aren’t among the top 3 scoring options in their teams.
These players probably aren’t going to reach the levels of top-20, or even maybe top-50 players in the league in the next several seasons, but they could catapult themselves into good new contracts in a year or two and a bigger role. These are players that pass my subjective “eye test” and my general sentiment. I am no scout, so I’m definitely looking forward to your thoughts as well on this topic!
Peyton Watson
18.6 MPG, 46.3% FG%, 29% FG3%, 6.6 PTS, 3.2 REB, 0.5 STL, 1.1 BLK
When in need of a defensive boost, Peyton Watson is there. One can argue that he is currently the best wing defender on the Nuggets team, maybe even ahead of Aaron Gordon. Watson has significantly improved his minutes and overall game compared to the previous season, and the Nuggets front office and coaching staff are big believers in his game. Christian Braun already made the leap in last year’s playoffs, making a lot of clutch plays when needed. Both of them were on the court in the recent and important win over the Wolves to take the 1st seed in the Western Conference (for the moment).
Watson’s overall play style reminds of Aaron Gordon, but Gordon is just more polished and can attack off the dribble better, shoot (a bit) better, and pass better, but Watson’s defensive prowess might just be ahead of Gordon already. He has a nose for the ball and has amazing timing when going for a block. He can also lock down players, but he’s at his best when used as a help defender. He’s had some good shooting stretches, and if he manages to do that in one or two games during a playoff series, that might be a huge boost for the Nuggets. I’m looking forward to his bigger role, as he certainly has a spot among the top 8 of the Nuggets rotation.
Isaiah Joe
18.7 MPG, 46% FG%, 42% FG3%, 8.3 PTS, 1.9 FG3M
Believe it or not, but player with the most playoff appearances on the Thunder team other than Gordon Hayward and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Isaiah Joe. He has played in 11 playoff games in total, but he played only 24 minutes overall in those 11 games. That was during his first two seasons when he was a part of the 76ers team.
Such playoff “experience” probably won’t help him when he steps on the court during “real” playoff games in less than two weeks, but he will be a big factor in this young Thunder team. I have confidence in that because he is objectively the best shooter on the team. While Jalen Williams has made a huge leap from his rookie year in all aspects of the game - including 3-point shooting, as well as Luguentz Dort, Joe is still the best pure shooter, and you can never have enough of those on the court.
One of the reasons I think he can be a big contributor is his ability to go on a hot streak and knock down multiple 3-pointers in a row. That’s something only he and Dort are capable of doing, as Jalen is still mostly a driver and generally has a lot lower 3-point rate. Teams poised for deep playoff runs always have players that can go crazy behind the 3-point line, and this might be the perfect situation for Joe to show his shooting skills.
Isaac Okoro
27.4 MPG, 48.9% FG%, 38.6% FG3%, 1.2 FG3M, 9.4 PTS
This is a crucial postseason for Isaac Okoro in my opinion. While Joe and Watson have a pretty relaxed situation, Okoro is in the final season of his contract. He has been in and out of the starting lineup throughout the season as the Cavs have been either struggling with injuries or performance and were trying to find that ideal lineup. Ultimately, Okoro will be a bench boost with everyone healthy (Garland-Mitchell-Strus-Mobley-Allen seems to be the starting five).
Okoro has had a significant leap in 3-point shooting - his weakest part of the game. He has a career-best 3-point rate and 3-point percentage, and while the volume is still low, Okoro doesn’t seem that hesitant anymore when he receives the ball behind the 3-point line, he’s even shooting it above the break and his overall FG3% of 38.6% is exactly 2% more than the league average.
He is a very good driver and can dump it off as well, so this addition to his arsenal is crucial. He doesn’t have problems on the other side of the ball though. Okoro is a tremendous on-ball defender, easily the best one on the Cavs team, so if they seem to be struggling toward the end of the game I think Okoro could end up closing the game.
The issue with the Cavs might be that they have too many good players, but missing great players. I love Garland, Mobley, and Allen, but it seems like the entire team is missing another “next-level” player, that’s not a knock on Okoro obviously, but it just feels like a crucial postseason for the Cavs.
Trey Murphy III
29.4 MPG, 43.8% FG%, 37.2% FG3%, 2.9 FG3M, 14.7 PTS
Trey Murphy is already rated pretty high and is the “highest” on the pecking order for scoring in his team out of all the other players listed so far. He is arguably the 4th best option for the Pelicans, and even though he started the season injured, Murphy kept surging with his performances throughout the year, and ever since the trade deadline has been maybe even the 2nd most important player for the Pels.
He and Herb Jones have amazing synergy with Zion Williamson, as they enable a lot of space for him and have a strong gravitational pull around the 3-point line. Herb improved significantly this season, and even though he could be the candidate for “the break out” as well, he has his contract situation sorted out. Murphy on the other hand is eligible for an extension this offseason and it would be a shock if the Pelicans miss out on this opportunity. A 6-foot-8 forward with tremendous shooting, solid defense, and very good impact numbers (net rating, all-in-ones) is someone you just can’t let slip by.
It feels that these playoffs have a similar impact on the Pelicans as a whole in the same way as they do for the Cavs. This core has been together for a while now, and they still don’t have a well-built identity around them, I’d argue that the Cavs have a better identity, but just not proper personnel.
Everyone on the Magic Team
I wanted to write this section specifically about Jalen Suggs, but to be honest he has already made a breakthrough this season. From being a near bust after his 2nd season, Suggs has completely flipped his play style, by both increasing his 3-point volume (3.8 to 5.2 FG3A) and significantly improving his 3-point efficiency (almost 40%!!). Okoro and he are similar players, but Suggs has leaped much higher than him this season.
He’s a defensive pest and is one of the biggest reasons for the incredible Magic defense, and as things stand, he is the best Magic shooter this season, if we’re not counting the old veteran Joe Ingles who can still shoot the lights out of the 3-pointer. That is a huge surprise to probably everyone, as shooting consistency was a huge issue for Suggs coming into the league, and during the first two seasons.
It’s painfully obvious that they need more help with shooting because Suggs is more of a glue guy (think Marcus Smart) than a 3rd scoring option. This is where the remainder of the Magic team comes into play. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero are and will be in the spotlight, but even they aren’t “those guys” yet. They have improved, but the stage is set for them to make a huge breakthrough. Jonathan Isaac is their best player by all the advanced metrics, and we know the story behind him - injuries. Throughout the season he was either injured or managing minutes, and his offensive game is nowhere near his defensive side. Markell Fultz has battled with injuries after a great 22-23 campaign, and the same can be said about Wendell Carter Jr.
Fultz, Gary Harris, and Suggs are all in their last years of the contract, and Isaac’s next season isn’t guaranteed so the postseason could impact them the most.
Some Other Players That Could Pop Off
As mentioned in the introduction, I mainly focused on players and teams with salary/contract situations that directly or indirectly impact those players. But many more players have already signed for multiple years but have been trending upward through the season. Let’s mention some of them:
Aaron Nesmith from the Pacers has secured the starting position for the Pacers and is playing really well despite some minor injury setbacks.
Josh Green has a very similar situation with the Dallas Mavericks, as he was the designated starter at the start of the season, and he has shown good flashes of decision-making, shooting, and solid defense throughout the year, but the addition of PJ Washington and injuries threw him off the starting lineup. Nevertheless, there is plenty of room for impact with the Mavs team.
Derrick Jones Jr. of the Mavs is also playing the best basketball of his career and is a free agent after this season
Naz Reid doesn’t have anything to prove, but he can eat into even more minutes by Karl-Anthony Towns and thus raise some questions regarding the Wolves structure in the future
Thanks for reading!
I think Nickel-Alexander Walker will surprise a lot of people