Sometimes I’m not satisfied with the work I do over the entire week, as it happens that I end up with no new texts or code that I intended to write.
But then I try to rewind the week and scan the ideas.txt file that I have ongoing for several years now (or messages to myself when something hits me in the middle of a walk/run/dinner somewhere) and notice that I wrote down a lot of new things that popped up in one way or another.
I’m writing this because this edition (and a lot of previous ones) of chart dump is inspired by several things I’ve noticed throughout the last week.
Clutch Time
There’s been a lot of talk about the Celtics in the past week - in major and minor media outlets as well as various podcasts, personal blogs, and Twitter/social media.
They’ve lost two games in the past week during the clutch time, the first one vs the depleted Cavs team, and the second one vs the defending champs Nuggets.
In both of those games, Jayson Tatum disappeared in the fourth - and that has been a recurring pattern throughout the season.
Tatum is 4th worst in clutch TS% among the top 30 players in total True Shooting Attempts (FGA + 0.44 * FTA). When observing the Celtics as a team they’ve actually been solid in overall performance obtaining a 19-10 score when the game was inside 5 points as the game was entering the final 5 minutes. That’s good enough for 5th best score in the league.
But Tatum’s performance during the clutch time has been on similar levels for the past 3 seasons (he was really efficient in the years before that…). Interestingly enough, Brown, White, Holiday, and especially Porzingis have all been in the above-average zone of efficiency (with Porzingis shooting 81% TS%!) in the clutch time. So the question arising from this issue is will the pecking order change when the situation calls for it?
Harden’s Finishing Touch
After watching James Harden in the 76ers’ jersey my first thoughts were that he can’t reach the rim anymore. I thought he couldn’t drive in iso situations and teams should solely play him defensively like that without sending double teams as he kept punishing them with ease, especially when Joel was around.
I think the impact of his hamstring injury from the 2020 playoffs bothered him longer than everyone (or most people) thought. If you combine that with his age and the fact that he can’t elevate as he did during his prime year with the Rockets, you get a player who’s struggling with finishing around the rim.
But that’s not the case anymore.
Harden is finishing with above-average percentages (for guards) inside the Restricted Area this season. His volume took a huge hit, and he carries the least burden on offense since maybe his days with the Thunder (he was a second option with the Sixers and definitely a stronger 3rd option with the Nets).
We can also take a look at his restricted area efficiencies throughout the years.
Once again, the volume is a mere fragment of what it used to be, but the efficiency is significantly better than the previous two seasons. Harden has switched up his playstyle towards the old-man role, he is shooting even a greater share of 3-pointers than earlier but has also started to pull up more from mid-range and outside of the restricted area overall.
What once was an ideal analytical shot profile is now getting more fine-tuned to his skills and capabilities - which Harden still possesses plenty, and it’s also a pure fact that he needs to do less work with the Clippers than on every team before. He still has great threats in the Pick and Roll/Pop game in Zubac/Theis and that’s where he does the majority of damage - either directly through scoring or through pinpoint accurate dishes.
But the newest addition to his game is the off-the-ball game - Harden is taking 19% of all his shots from the Catch&Shoot situations, that’s the highest number since the 2013-14 season - the last one before being supercharged as one of the biggest heliocentric systems in the modern basketball. Even though this isn’t directly connected with his rim finishing, Harden adds an extra dimension that wasn’t really present in the past several seasons. Plus, he can always attack the closeouts when the opportunity shows itself.
Free Throw Trend
The last thing I’ve noticed is that the games seem much more fluid. I might have also stumbled upon a Twitter post that says the same thing so I could have unconsciously fixated on that idea.
But the data doesn’t lie. The trend started to decline significantly as we reached February, and it plateaued at around 20-21 free throws per game, which is 3-4 fewer compared to the first part of the season from the year 2023.
That’s all for the current issue of the chart dump!
Remember, keep writing down every bit of ideas and observations that cross your mind. You never know when you might need them.