The Tucker Paradox
The Pinnacle of Specialization
P.J. Tucker is currently in the twilight of his career and playing the least minutes per game since 2012-13, when he returned to the NBA after playing in Europe. He has had a very rich basketball career with many accolades across various basketball levels and associations. From the Big-12 Player of the Year award to winning Israeli and German leagues (with MVP honors) then returning to the NBA and becoming one of the most recognized 3-and-D players of the 2010s with many deep playoff runs while being the man in charge of the toughest defensive assignments. He capped such a long NBA career with the championship ring in the 2020-21 season with the Bucks and is in the hunt for a second one with the Clippers.
His offensive game was never flashy or exciting at the NBA level, but he knew his role and place, and that has served him for 12 years of NBA experience in total. Tucker specialized in standing in the corner while playing for the Houston Rockets built around the bearded Sun - James Harden.
During the 2019-20 season, the Rockets unveiled the Micro-Ball to the basketball world. Their tallest player in that season (who played during the playoffs) was Jeff Green standing at 6-8, while their tallest starter was Robert Covington at 6-7. Infinite spacing and isolation game by James Harden and Russell Westbrook was the premise of the team that in the end failed to reach further than 2nd round of the playoffs (falling to the Los Angeles Lakers - who would go on to win the championship).
In that same season, Tucker played his personal best of 34.3 minutes per game while playing in all 72 games (shortened due to COVID-19). He attempted 4.2 3-pointers per game, and their average (non-backcourt) distance was 23.33 feet, 0.43 feet shorter than the distance to the 3-point arc. And thus, we have revealed the Tucker Paradox.
The Tucker Paradox arises when a player's average distance of attempted 3-point shots is shorter than the actual distance of the 3-point arc.
This paradox has an easy explanation. Since Tucker spent (and still is spending) most of his playing time in the corner, the shots from that part of the court are shorter than the shots from the top of the arc by 1.75 feet (the 3-point line in the corner is 22 feet).
While on the Rockets, Tucker shot a respectable 38% on corner 3s and was able to be a respectable threat that can’t be left alone in the corner. Those Rockets teams were filled with players whose purpose was to simply stand, wait, and shoot when receiving the ball. Danuel House and Ben McLemore were among some names that often performed in such a role while Tucker was resting on the bench.
Nowadays Tucker isn’t appearing in the Clippers’ lineup that often, but if you’re wondering about his shots and paradox effect on the current season - he still got it.
Searching for Other Corner Campers
So let’s dive in and check out if more players fit this paradox. I’ve narrowed the search field to only the top 150 players in total 3-point attempts during each season since 2010-11. Such a filter isn’t perfect, but it segments out the most common shooters in each season.
When we apply such a filter, we get 33 players in total, with only Tucker making the list more than 2 times. It seems interesting to see both Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam on this list - from times when they were just getting their first steps in the NBA and weren’t the main options for their teams.
If we modify the condition for the selection of players to get all players with 2 or more 3-point attempts per season (a much looser condition) we still get only 68 such performances since the 2010-11 season, and there are multiple players with 2 such seasons.
In recent seasons players such as Herbert Jones, Jaden McDaniels, and Isaac Okoro have an average distance of less than 23.75 feet. The difference between them and the rest of this list is that despite their shortcomings as shooters they can knock down threes on 40%+ efficiency, and all of them have shown significant progress in their 3-point shooting - even stepping out of the comfort corner zone.
The Original Father of “Tucker Paradox”
If we go back a bit further then the previously set border of 2010/11 season we will find a player who can be deemed as the real father of this paradox. It’s a player with a similar profile to PJ Tucker, more defensive accolades, and more championship rings.
Bruce Bowen.
I was a bit too young to completely appreciate his skillset and what he brought to the Spurs’ dynasty, but I always remember reading about him as one of the best (if not the best) perimeter defenders of his time. And he managed to be effective on the offense by specializing in the most efficient shot on the court (outside of the restricted area, of course).
In the 2005-06 season, Bowen managed to shoot 90% of all 3-pointers from the corner. Tucker has also managed to crack that number, but at the time when his volume was already significantly reduced.
Such achievements by both Bowen and Tucker are impressive, but the way that basketball was being played is really different. Bowen’s 3.0 3-point attempts per game in 2005-06 was good enough for 78th in terms of volume, while Tucker’s 4.2 total 3-point attempts per game in 2019-20 placed him at only 118th overall rank.
End of Corner Specialization?
Let’s continue dissecting the data from the 2000-01 season onwards. I’ll display a number of players in a single season that adheres to the “Tucker Paradox”.
The period with the highest number of players that qualify for the “Tucker Paradox” was in the early to mid-2000s and started to fall just as the “age of analytics” started to come up.
The analytics aren’t the reason for that though, as corner 3 is one of the most valuable shots in the game. The pace is the reason. I think everyone will agree with me about the pace part - as you speed up the game, you often end up in relatively wide-open situations from the above-the-break 3-point range, so it makes sense to take such shots (think Pacers, Hawks, …).
The other reason is that the players and the game got more skilled. Okoro, Jones, and McDaniels can’t build their offensive repertoire around just standing in the corner and waiting for something to happen. Being just an average shooter won’t keep you on the court anymore, you have to be able to attack the rim both with and without the ball - and each of those 3 players is making big strides in that direction.
I wanted to include these chart(s) for a weekly chart dump, but when I started writing about it I figured this could make a great individual post, so I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this one!
Cover Image Credits:
Creator: Stephen Gosling | Credit: NBAE/Getty Images
Copyright: 2018 NBAE