NBA Playoffs Round 2 Rundown

Time to get back on track

Hello everyone, it’s been a while since I’ve written something, but I have a good excuse for that. I got married just a week ago, and then did a mini honeymoon (honeyweek actually) trip to Malta! If you want, I can give you a quick rundown of Malta, as it’s a very interesting country, one of the more interesting ones I’ve visited in Europe!

But let’s get back to business. Round 2 is well underway, and we have more than an interesting series in our hands. Even though I was honeymooning, I managed to check up on the games, not as much in detail as I did with most round 1s, so I’ll try to give more general observations.

NYK - IND

I can’t tell much about this series, as I’ve watched only Game 2 and Game 4 in detail. Yesterday’s Game 4 didn’t reveal that much to us. The Pacers blew the Knicks out of the water straight from the start, kept their shot, and even more importantly, their intensity going. The Knicks seemed tired for the first time in the playoffs. Their rotations were off, their 1v1 defense wasn’t as physical as in the past games, and their finishing was off. The Pacers on the other hand, scored almost everything they attempted. The TJ McConnell + Obi Toppin show was a killer for the Knicks, and by the end of the first half the game was already over.

Basically, all drives ended successfully for the Pacers, and the Knicks couldn’t finish their plays properly. Combine that with good shooting by the Pacers and the game was a blowout.

Going Forward

The Knicks were huge favorites for this series, but the issue now is their depth, which is almost non-existent. The wear and tear are starting to show itself, and it felt like the players needed to “skip a game”. Game 3 loss could be a big one as it shifted the series in the Pacers’ favor.

The Knicks are now without Randle, Bogdanovic, Robinson, and most likely Anunoby. 4 key players, 2 of which would be the starters, and the remaining 2 amongst the top 7-8 in the rotation. They are running out of players to play. Their current 7th and 8th players (Sims and Burks) haven’t even touched the court in the first round, and yet the Knicks’ success depends on them.

I already said that the series is shifting in the Pacers’ way, and that could very well be the truth. Their bench unit’s intensity is ridiculous, and I don’t believe the Knicks have the pace and stamina to follow that. The Knicks’ biggest pro currently is that they’re playing at home tomorrow, and then they have an extra day of rest before Game 6.

DEN - MIN

Here we have a series with 2 blowouts (game 3 against Minny, and game 2 against Denver) and 2 games that could’ve gone either way (Game 1 for the Nuggets and game 4 for the Wolves).

Games 3 and 4 are a complete 180 of the first two games. In game 1, Nikola Jokić attempted 9 3-point attempts and scored only 2. Those 9 attempts are the most in the entire season, and 3rd most in his entire playoff career. The only 2 games with more attempts were vs the Utah Jazz (with that, vs Gobert). So yeah, the key vs Gobert is to pull him outside of the paint, but that is not Jokić’s style, he is not a 3-point shooter, yes he can and he will score 3-pointers, but you’re missing out on a lot more of higher quality shots by doing so.

Game 2 was a complete blowout, where everything went the Wolves’ way, but in Game 3 (also a blowout though) and Game 4, Jokić stopped settling. He took some 3-pointers but rejected a lot of them in favor of drive to the hoop. By doing so he instantly brings chaos into the opponent’s defense. He can attack KAT more, causing him to get into foul trouble, he can attract double teams to break the Wolves’ rotation (which he did constantly), and he can try to get Murray going with a 2-man game.

So let’s check in on some crucial things in Game 4.

Aaron Gordon stepping up

Gordon was completely stopped in game 1, the Wolves defended his cuts amazingly, and Gobert was able to cover both him and Gobert as a help defender. Let’s not forget this amazing play.

So in game 2, the Nuggets already started to adjust how Gordon plays, it didn’t work out as they got a blowout, but that adjustment stood by, and Gordon has probably just had the best playoff game of his career - if we go by the basketball reference’s game score, this was in fact his best game.

The weird thing about it, it wasn’t done in the usual way the Nuggets use Gordon. He created a lot of shots for himself. Some comments in this Reddit thread downplayed his performance saying that most shots were wide open, but Gordon had 5 great dunks/layups/shots that he created for himself.

This drive in the open floor early in the offense is something that we rarely see by him. He basically served as a “Point Center”, or mini Jokić in the stint where Jokić was resting. In that early 2nd quarter, and late 3rd quarter/early 4th when Jokić was on the bench due to foul trouble, Gordon looked very similar to “Orlando Gordon”.

With Gordon playing in such a style, the Wolves have to account for a lot more lineup changes which then instantly makes their life harder. And when you add in the fact that he keeps knocking down 3 pointers, you’re in for a rough game.

Murray in the groove

When Jamal Murray is in the groove the offense clicks significantly. His explosion in the 2nd half allowed the Nuggets to constantly go into 2v2 action with Murray-Jokić, and that 2-man game either directly or indirectly created maybe all field goal makes when the 2 of them were on the court together in the 2nd half. It was a joy to watch them read and react to various defensive adjustments thrown out by the Wolves (switch, drop, and then show double team before the screen alone where the supporting cast reacted properly to create open shots).

Malone adjusting

Involving Gordon more in the play, rolling with Braun who was in the groove on both sides of the ball, and promoting Holiday to a bigger role when they were in dire need of a shot all show that Malone isn’t stubborn, that he reads the game before his players do (based on how the plays turn out). Malone has impressed me with the poise and the changes he’s made coming from the first 2 games because all of the things that I’ve written above most definitely start from him and the rest of the coaching staff.

The Wolves are okay, on offense

Yes, it’s a shame to waste such a great Anthony Edwards performance, but in general, they’ve played another good game. Towns had a poor game as he kept forcing some tough situations without trying to look for a mismatch or a teammate. I do believe that he can score better than this, but his decision-making has to be better. McDaniels, Reid, and Conley all stepped up as much as they could, and in general, their percentages weren’t horrible in game 4 (game 3 was a complete outlier though).

The defensive side is the problematic one, as the Nuggets shot an emphatic 55% through games 3 and 4. And the feeling was yet again as it was in the first-round series vs the Lakers, that the Nuggets could get at will to positions and shots that they want. And if you combine that with 44%+ 3-point shooting performances, you can’t really do anything against the reigning champion in that situation.

The Wolves can try multiple things here, first one would be to stay home vs Murray/Jokić and play them with McDaniels/Gobert because they couldn’t really stop anything when they hedged or played a drop versus their pick-and-roll game. Jokić, and even Gordon played well out of the post-ups and hit their teammates.

The other option would be to bet against their 3-point shot by trying a 2-3 zone. That could clog up the lane, but then again, if you let Gordon roam the dunker spot while Gobert is occupied with Jokić at the elbow, you’re not in for a good time. I definitely think the Wolves can strike back, but they would need another down game or at least an average one in terms of 3-point shooting.

We’ll get an answer to some of these questions in 2 days…

BOS-CLE and OKC-DAL

I wanted to write about these series, but there is already way too much text here, so I’ll talk about them tomorrow. I have specifically focused on the Cavs-Celtics series and I feel like a lot of people are ignoring/downplaying the series in favor of Celtics, but Game 3 was a lot closer than the final result tells us.

One quick thought about that game is that someone not named Mitchell needs to step up, in game 2 it was LeVert with Okoro and Strus playing well, but all 3 of those guys have taken a step back in game 3, and you can’t win with only 1 performing player. You can also just flip how you look at it, and say that Cavs’ shot-making just wasn’t good enough, and I don’t think you’d be wrong about that. The thing is, they are miles better than that ugly game 1, and I believe they could tie the series today!